Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in over 30 years, but that may change soon.
In January 2026, Democrat Taylor Rehmet achieved a surprising 14-point victory in a Republican-led Fort Worth-area district during the Texas state Senate special election, breaking a longstanding streak in the state’s voting tradition. President Trump won this district by 17 points in the 2024 presidential race. A runoff election in November will decide whether Rehmet will serve a full four-year term.
Ken Martin, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), called Rehmet’s victory “a warning sign to Republicans across the country.”
Democrat Lloyd Bentsen won a fourth term in the U.S. Senate in 1988, and Democrat Robert Krueger briefly served as a senator after being appointed to fill a vacancy in 1994. Since then, Republicans have dominated statewide elections in Texas.
With the next U.S. Senate race approaching in November, Democratic nominee James Talarico will prepare to face either four-term incumbent John Cornyn or state attorney general Ken Paxton, depending on the outcome of the Republican runoff election on May 26. Democrats would need to win four seats to regain a Senate majority.
Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, has gained support from voters of color and young voters on issues such as public education, economic equity, and denouncing Christian nationalism.
NPR political correspondent Ashley Lopez stated in an interview that “Base voters are telling Democratic leaders they’re unhappy with the people that they have in power. They’re unhappy with the way Democrats have been handling the second term of the Trump administration.”
At the same time, Lopez notes the idea that Texas will flip blue “has not panned out for many, many cycles,” despite beliefs that “demographics are destiny” in Texas, revealing a gap that candidates like Talarico seek to close.
Why did voter turnout increase during the primary election?
The 2026 Texas primary drew nearly 4.5 million voters, including approximately 2.3 million Democrats and 2.2 million Republicans. While Republicans have historically dominated the polls, this year Democrats outnumbered Republicans in voter participation by nearly 7%.
One possible factor behind increased Democratic turnout is a heightened political discontent. A poll by the University of Texas found that 25% of Democrats identified political corruption or leadership as the most pressing issue affecting the state, compared to 14% of Texans overall. Political Science Professor Michael Kistner from the University of Houston attributes this record-breaking turnout in part to President Trump, who he believes “inspires a lot of strong opinions and views from people,” who “have a desire to make their opinions heard.”
Democrats are also beginning to win back the voters they lost to President Trump in 2024. Latino voters, many of whom voted for Trump in 2024, experienced a surge in Democratic turnout. House Speaker Mike Johnson addressed the rift, stating that Republicans experienced a “hiccup with some Hispanic and Latino voters […] because some of the immigrant enforcement was viewed to be overzealous.” Talarico performed especially well in Latin precincts, aided by his outreach efforts, which included Spanish-language social media and messaging.
Most notably, the number of voters aged 18-29 in El Paso nearly tripled in this election compared with those in 2022. Young voter turnout appears to be a decisive factor for candidates, as Talarico leads among voters aged 18-29 with 60%, compared to Crocket’s 28%.
In contrast, older voters remain a stronghold for Republicans: during the 2026 Republican primary, 78% of voters were aged 50 and over, while only 4% were under 30. Young Americans have historically had some of the lowest turnout rates in elections. In recent years, however, youth turnout has steadily increased.
What could this mean for the midterm elections?
Voter turnout in the primary does not always translate into similar participation in the midterm. According to Emerson College polling from March 2026, Talarico has drawn the most support among both white and Hispanic voters on issues such as border policy and the economy. He currently holds a narrow lead in early polls over his Republican opponents.
Whether Texas Democrats can flip a Republican-held seat will depend on whether they can sustain this momentum into the midterm elections. In 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 percentage points of unseating incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz in one of the closest Senate races in Texas history. The 2026 election may serve as the clearest test yet of whether these turnout and demographic shifts can translate into electoral change.